Future Labour Market Prospects of Youth Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET)

The 2016 Australian census data showed that one in 10 Australians aged 15-24 years was not in education, employment or training (NEET). The assumption that NEET harms wellbeing underpins theoretical and policy discourses on youth disengagement from work and study. However, despite the extensive literature on the profiles of Australian NEET youth, the evidence on the consequences of NEET for future labour force participation and career progression is limited. Using data from the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset, this study shows that a spell of NEET at ages 15-24 years is significantly associated with reduced full-time employment prospects and increased risks of being out of the labour force at ages 25-34 years. Even if NEETs find a job later in life, they are more likely to end up in low-skilled occupations. Our findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between full-time and part-time employment while measuring long-term impacts of NEET status. We also showed that some NEETs face higher future labour market risks than others.