TY - JOUR
T1 - Growth in Densely Populated Asia
T2 - Implications for Primary Product Exporters
AU - Anderson, Kym
AU - Strutt, Anna
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University.
PY - 2014/1
Y1 - 2014/1
N2 - Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.
AB - Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.
KW - Asian economic growth
KW - Bilateral trade
KW - Booming sector economics
KW - Food security
KW - Global economy-wide model projections
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032914935&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/app5.14
DO - 10.1002/app5.14
M3 - Article
SN - 2050-2680
VL - 1
SP - 112
EP - 126
JO - Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies
JF - Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies
IS - 1
ER -