Has machine learning over-promised in healthcare? A critical analysis and a proposal for improved evaluation, with evidence from Parkinson's disease

Adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by the medical community has long been anticipated, endorsed by a stream of machine learning literature showcasing AI systems that yield extraordinary performance. However, many of these systems are likely over-promising and will under-deliver in practice. One key reason is the community's failure to acknowledge and address the presence of inflationary effects in the data. These simultaneously inflate evaluation performance and prevent a model from learning the underlying task, thus severely misrepresenting how that model would perform in the real world. This paper investigated the impact of these inflationary effects on healthcare tasks, as well as how these effects can be addressed. Specifically, we defined three inflationary effects that occur in medical data sets and allow models to easily reach small training losses and prevent skillful learning. We investigated two data sets of sustained vowel phonation from participants with and without Parkinson's disease, and revealed that published models which have achieved high classification performances on these were artificially enhanced due to the inflationary effects. Our experiments showed that removing each inflationary effect corresponded with a decrease in classification accuracy, and that removing all inflationary effects reduced the evaluated performance by up to 30%. Additionally, the performance on a more realistic test set increased, suggesting that the removal of these inflationary effects enabled the model to better learn the underlying task and generalize. Source code is available at https://github.com/Wenbo-G/pd-phonation-analysis under the MIT license.