How much abandoned farmland is required to harbor comparable species richness and abundance of bird communities in wetland? Hierarchical community model suggests the importance of habitat structure and landscape context

While wetlands have been converted into farmlands, large amounts of farmlands are now being abandoned, and this novel habitat is expected to be inhabited by species which depend on wetlands. Here we examined the effects of habitat and landscape variables on the densities of wetland bird species in abandoned farmlands. We surveyed birds in abandoned farmlands with different patch area, habitat, and landscape variables in Kushiro district, eastern Hokkaido, northern Japan. We also surveyed birds in 15 ha of the remaining wetlands as a reference habitat. We used abundance-based hierarchical community models (HCMs) to estimate patch-level estimates of abundance of each species based on sampling plots data that only partially covered the studied patches. We observed 14 wetland species and analyzed them with HCMs. Abandoned farmland patch areas had significant positive effects on the densities of two species. Tree densities and shrub coverage exerted positive and negative effects on some species. Amounts of surrounding wetland/grassland had positive effects on many species. Ensemble of species-level models suggested that 24.7 and 10.6 ha of abandoned farmlands would be needed to harbor a comparable total abundance and species richness in 15-ha wetlands, respectively. These required amounts can be increased/decreased depending on the covariates. The use of HCMs allows us to predict species- and community-level responses under varied conditions based on incomplete sampling data. A quantity of 1.6 times larger areas of abandoned farmlands may be required to restore wetland bird communities in eastern Hokkaido.