How worried should Canberra be about China’s security interests in the Pacific? Perspectives from PRC and Pacific Interlocutors

Executive Summary
Persistent distrust in relations between Canberra and Beijing makes meaningful security engagement in the Pacific between the two countries unlikely.
Military objectives in the Pacific are a low priority for Beijing, although the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its regional security presence – primarily in non-traditional areas. PRC experts see Pacific engagement primarily through the lens of broader strategic interests, such as cultivating ties with the Global South. The PRC prefers bilateral engagement with Pacific Island countries (PICs), often bypassing Australia.
PICs welcome the PRC’s contribution to their development. However, they remain cautious about PRC’s security presence and continue to view Australia as their preferred security partner. Still, they also see real benefits from engaging with the PRC, and do not fully share Australia’s concerns about the PRC’s objectives.
Australia should adopt a comprehensive assessment of the PRC’s regional security presence that does not immediately dismiss PRC and PIC perspectives as a threat to Australia’s interest. Rather than a blocking strategy, Australia’s interests would be better served by a multipronged approach that supports independent PIC diplomacy, one that grounds its responses in evidence-based assessments.