Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos, Kazuhisa Takemura

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    25 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)135-150
    Number of pages16
    JournalRisk, Decision and Policy
    Volume5
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2000

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