TY - JOUR
T1 - Increasing trends in regional heatwaves
AU - Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.
AU - Lewis, S. C.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/12/1
Y1 - 2020/12/1
N2 - Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.
AB - Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087406688&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7
DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7
M3 - Article
C2 - 32620857
AN - SCOPUS:85087406688
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 11
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 3357
ER -