Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski; Jonathan J. Forster; Peter W.F. Smith; Jakub Bijak; James Raymer

doi:10.1111/rssa.12177

Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski^*, Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W.F. Smith, Jakub Bijak, James Raymer

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin–destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1007-1024
Number of pages	18
Journal	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
Volume	179
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12177
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2016

Access to Document

10.1111/rssa.12177

Cite this

@article{10d48a1d75ca4bc39954265f3f01078c,

title = "Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration",

abstract = "Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin–destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.",

keywords = "Bayesian modelling, Contingency tables, Europe, International migration statistics, Migration models",

author = "Arkadiusz Wi{\'s}niowski and Forster, \{Jonathan J.\} and Smith, \{Peter W.F.\} and Jakub Bijak and James Raymer",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016 The Authors Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) Published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Statistical Society.",

year = "2016",

month = oct,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1111/rssa.12177",

language = "English",

volume = "179",

pages = "1007--1024",

journal = "Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society",

issn = "0964-1998",

publisher = "Oxford University Press ",

number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

AU - Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz

AU - Forster, Jonathan J.

AU - Smith, Peter W.F.

AU - Bijak, Jakub

AU - Raymer, James

PY - 2016/10/1

Y1 - 2016/10/1

N2 - Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin–destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

AB - Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin–destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

KW - Bayesian modelling

KW - Contingency tables

KW - Europe

KW - International migration statistics

KW - Migration models

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84955591260

U2 - 10.1111/rssa.12177

DO - 10.1111/rssa.12177

M3 - Article

SN - 0964-1998

VL - 179

SP - 1007

EP - 1024

JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

IS - 4

ER -

Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this