Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

Alasdair D. Henderson; Mike Kama; Maite Aubry; Stephane Hue; Anita Teissier; Taina Naivalu; Vinaisi D. Bechu; Jimaima Kailawadoko; Isireli Rabukawaqa; Aalisha Sahukhan; Martin L. Hibberd; Eric J. Nilles; Sebastian Funk; Jimmy Whitworth; Conall H. Watson; Colleen L. Lau; W. John Edmunds; Van Mai Cao-Lormeau; Adam J. Kucharski

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y

Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

Alasdair D. Henderson^*, Mike Kama, Maite Aubry, Stephane Hue, Anita Teissier, Taina Naivalu, Vinaisi D. Bechu, Jimaima Kailawadoko, Isireli Rabukawaqa, Aalisha Sahukhan, Martin L. Hibberd, Eric J. Nilles, Sebastian Funk, Jimmy Whitworth, Conall H. Watson, Colleen L. Lau, W. John Edmunds, Van Mai Cao-Lormeau, Adam J. Kucharski

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.

Original language	English
Article number	1671
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2021

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Henderson, A. D., Kama, M., Aubry, M., Hue, S., Teissier, A., Naivalu, T., Bechu, V. D., Kailawadoko, J., Rabukawaqa, I., Sahukhan, A., Hibberd, M. L., Nilles, E. J., Funk, S., Whitworth, J., Watson, C. H., Lau, C. L., Edmunds, W. J., Cao-Lormeau, V. M., & Kucharski, A. J. (2021). Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji. Nature Communications, 12(1), Article 1671. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y

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title = "Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji",

abstract = "Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.",

author = "Henderson, {Alasdair D.} and Mike Kama and Maite Aubry and Stephane Hue and Anita Teissier and Taina Naivalu and Bechu, {Vinaisi D.} and Jimaima Kailawadoko and Isireli Rabukawaqa and Aalisha Sahukhan and Hibberd, {Martin L.} and Nilles, {Eric J.} and Sebastian Funk and Jimmy Whitworth and Watson, {Conall H.} and Lau, {Colleen L.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Cao-Lormeau, {Van Mai} and Kucharski, {Adam J.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

year = "2021",

month = dec,

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y",

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Henderson, AD, Kama, M, Aubry, M, Hue, S, Teissier, A, Naivalu, T, Bechu, VD, Kailawadoko, J, Rabukawaqa, I, Sahukhan, A, Hibberd, ML, Nilles, EJ, Funk, S, Whitworth, J, Watson, CH, Lau, CL, Edmunds, WJ, Cao-Lormeau, VM & Kucharski, AJ 2021, 'Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji', Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 1671. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y

TY - JOUR

T1 - Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

AU - Henderson, Alasdair D.

AU - Kama, Mike

AU - Aubry, Maite

AU - Hue, Stephane

AU - Teissier, Anita

AU - Naivalu, Taina

AU - Bechu, Vinaisi D.

AU - Kailawadoko, Jimaima

AU - Rabukawaqa, Isireli

AU - Sahukhan, Aalisha

AU - Hibberd, Martin L.

AU - Nilles, Eric J.

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Whitworth, Jimmy

AU - Watson, Conall H.

AU - Lau, Colleen L.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Cao-Lormeau, Van Mai

AU - Kucharski, Adam J.

PY - 2021/12/1

Y1 - 2021/12/1

N2 - Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.

AB - Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y

DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y

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SN - 2041-1723

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 1671

ER -

Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

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