Abstract
AGU Fall Meeting 2023, held in San Francisco, CA, 11-15 December 2023, Session: Atmospheric Sciences / Toward Modifications of Extreme Weather Events Poster, Poster No. 2611, id. A31P-2611.
Tropical cyclone (TC)–related risks are rising with global warming. Increases are projected in both the proportion of intense TC and TC-associated rainfall. Future TCs may move poleward and penetrate further inland bringing heavy rain and strong winds to areas that have rarely experienced cyclones previously. Traditional measures to reduce vulnerability and exposure are unlikely to be sufficient to manage increasing risks. It is imperative to develop additional solutions. Mitigating TC hazards by aerosol seeding was proposed over two decades ago based on the impacts of aerosols on microphysics and thermodynamic processes in TC clouds. A few studies suggest that the probability of influencing TC development is highest early in their lifecycle. However, there has been little progress in this area, and the interaction between aerosols and tropical cyclogenesis remains poorly known.
In this study, we investigate the impacts of aerosols on the initiation of TCs using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We conduct idealized convective permitted simulations (with the finest grid spacing of 1 km) using a sophisticated spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme. Different particle size distributions representing both fine and coarse aerosols will be tested to determine the sensitivity of the pre-TC vortex's structure and intensity before it develops into a strong TC. The underlying mechanisms for the response of the pre-TC vortex to aerosols will be discussed. The research findings are essential to characterise potential mitigation strategies for TC risks.
Tropical cyclone (TC)–related risks are rising with global warming. Increases are projected in both the proportion of intense TC and TC-associated rainfall. Future TCs may move poleward and penetrate further inland bringing heavy rain and strong winds to areas that have rarely experienced cyclones previously. Traditional measures to reduce vulnerability and exposure are unlikely to be sufficient to manage increasing risks. It is imperative to develop additional solutions. Mitigating TC hazards by aerosol seeding was proposed over two decades ago based on the impacts of aerosols on microphysics and thermodynamic processes in TC clouds. A few studies suggest that the probability of influencing TC development is highest early in their lifecycle. However, there has been little progress in this area, and the interaction between aerosols and tropical cyclogenesis remains poorly known.
In this study, we investigate the impacts of aerosols on the initiation of TCs using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We conduct idealized convective permitted simulations (with the finest grid spacing of 1 km) using a sophisticated spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme. Different particle size distributions representing both fine and coarse aerosols will be tested to determine the sensitivity of the pre-TC vortex's structure and intensity before it develops into a strong TC. The underlying mechanisms for the response of the pre-TC vortex to aerosols will be discussed. The research findings are essential to characterise potential mitigation strategies for TC risks.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2023 |
| Event | American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2023 - San Francisco, United States Duration: 11 Dec 2023 → 15 Dec 2023 https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/meetings/AGU2023 |
Conference
| Conference | American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2023 |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | AGU23 |
| Country/Territory | United States |
| City | San Francisco |
| Period | 11/12/23 → 15/12/23 |
| Other | For more than 100 years, American Geophysical Union (AGU) meetings have been opening science—opening pathways to discovery, opening greater awareness to address climate change, opening greater collaborations to lead to solutions, and opening the fields and professions of science to a whole new age of justice equity, diversity, inclusion and belonging. This year, as AGU convenes more than 25,000 attendees from 100-plus countries in San Francisco for AGU23, the theme is “Wide. Open. Science.” 2023 might be the official year of Open Science but AGU also sees it as an opportunity to affirm overarching values and beliefs. It is a message for all to carry as we come together to share, inspire, collaborate, engage, and rededicate ourselves as a united community grounded in wide-open science. |
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