TY - JOUR
T1 - Lee-Carter mortality forecasting
T2 - A multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
AU - Booth, Heather
AU - Hyndman, Rob J.
AU - Tickle, Leonie
AU - de Jong, Piet
PY - 2006/10/20
Y1 - 2006/10/20
N2 - We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.
AB - We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33750491967&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.4054/demres.2006.15.9
DO - 10.4054/demres.2006.15.9
M3 - Article
SN - 1435-9871
VL - 15
SP - 289
EP - 310
JO - Demographic Research
JF - Demographic Research
M1 - 9
ER -