Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

Anna S. von der Heydt; Henk A. Dijkstra; Roderik S.W. van de Wal; Rodrigo Caballero; Michel Crucifix; Gavin L. Foster; Matthew Huber; Peter Köhler; Eelco Rohling; Paul J. Valdes; Peter Ashwin; Sebastian Bathiany; Tijn Berends; Loes G.J. van Bree; Peter Ditlevsen; Michael Ghil; Alan M. Haywood; Joel Katzav; Gerrit Lohmann; Johannes Lohmann; Valerio Lucarini; Alice Marzocchi; Heiko Pälike; Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni; Dirk Simon; Appy Sluijs; Lennert B. Stap; Alexis Tantet; Jan Viebahn; Martin Ziegler

doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

Anna S. von der Heydt^*, Henk A. Dijkstra, Roderik S.W. van de Wal, Rodrigo Caballero, Michel Crucifix, Gavin L. Foster, Matthew Huber, Peter Köhler, Eelco Rohling, Paul J. Valdes, Peter Ashwin, Sebastian Bathiany, Tijn Berends, Loes G.J. van Bree, Peter Ditlevsen, Michael Ghil, Alan M. Haywood, Joel Katzav, Gerrit Lohmann, Johannes LohmannValerio Lucarini, Alice Marzocchi, Heiko Pälike, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Dirk Simon, Appy Sluijs, Lennert B. Stap, Alexis Tantet, Jan Viebahn, Martin Ziegler

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

42 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	148-158
Number of pages	11
Journal	Current Climate Change Reports
Volume	2
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2016

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von der Heydt, A. S., Dijkstra, H. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., Caballero, R., Crucifix, M., Foster, G. L., Huber, M., Köhler, P., Rohling, E., Valdes, P. J., Ashwin, P., Bathiany, S., Berends, T., van Bree, L. G. J., Ditlevsen, P., Ghil, M., Haywood, A. M., Katzav, J., Lohmann, G., ... Ziegler, M. (2016). Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. Current Climate Change Reports, 2(4), 148-158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

@article{60be2eb8b1224201ad86cb9ce7bba340,

title = "Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes",

abstract = "Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.",

keywords = "Climate sensitivity, Climate tipping points, Palaeoclimate",

author = "{von der Heydt}, {Anna S.} and Dijkstra, {Henk A.} and {van de Wal}, {Roderik S.W.} and Rodrigo Caballero and Michel Crucifix and Foster, {Gavin L.} and Matthew Huber and Peter K{\"o}hler and Eelco Rohling and Valdes, {Paul J.} and Peter Ashwin and Sebastian Bathiany and Tijn Berends and {van Bree}, {Loes G.J.} and Peter Ditlevsen and Michael Ghil and Haywood, {Alan M.} and Joel Katzav and Gerrit Lohmann and Johannes Lohmann and Valerio Lucarini and Alice Marzocchi and Heiko P{\"a}like and Baroni, {Itzel Ruvalcaba} and Dirk Simon and Appy Sluijs and Stap, {Lennert B.} and Alexis Tantet and Jan Viebahn and Martin Ziegler",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016, The Author(s).",

year = "2016",

month = dec,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3",

language = "English",

volume = "2",

pages = "148--158",

journal = "Current Climate Change Reports",

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von der Heydt, AS, Dijkstra, HA, van de Wal, RSW, Caballero, R, Crucifix, M, Foster, GL, Huber, M, Köhler, P, Rohling, E, Valdes, PJ, Ashwin, P, Bathiany, S, Berends, T, van Bree, LGJ, Ditlevsen, P, Ghil, M, Haywood, AM, Katzav, J, Lohmann, G, Lohmann, J, Lucarini, V, Marzocchi, A, Pälike, H, Baroni, IR, Simon, D, Sluijs, A, Stap, LB, Tantet, A, Viebahn, J & Ziegler, M 2016, 'Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes', Current Climate Change Reports, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 148-158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

TY - JOUR

T1 - Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

AU - von der Heydt, Anna S.

AU - Dijkstra, Henk A.

AU - van de Wal, Roderik S.W.

AU - Caballero, Rodrigo

AU - Crucifix, Michel

AU - Foster, Gavin L.

AU - Huber, Matthew

AU - Köhler, Peter

AU - Rohling, Eelco

AU - Valdes, Paul J.

AU - Ashwin, Peter

AU - Bathiany, Sebastian

AU - Berends, Tijn

AU - van Bree, Loes G.J.

AU - Ditlevsen, Peter

AU - Ghil, Michael

AU - Haywood, Alan M.

AU - Katzav, Joel

AU - Lohmann, Gerrit

AU - Lohmann, Johannes

AU - Lucarini, Valerio

AU - Marzocchi, Alice

AU - Pälike, Heiko

AU - Baroni, Itzel Ruvalcaba

AU - Simon, Dirk

AU - Sluijs, Appy

AU - Stap, Lennert B.

AU - Tantet, Alexis

AU - Viebahn, Jan

AU - Ziegler, Martin

PY - 2016/12/1

Y1 - 2016/12/1

N2 - Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

AB - Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

KW - Climate sensitivity

KW - Climate tipping points

KW - Palaeoclimate

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85024394479&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

DO - 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

M3 - Review article

SN - 2198-6061

VL - 2

SP - 148

EP - 158

JO - Current Climate Change Reports

JF - Current Climate Change Reports

IS - 4

ER -

Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

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