Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

Ben Stewart-Koster; Stuart E. Bunn; Pamela Green; Christopher Ndehedehe; Lauren S. Andersen; David I. Armstrong McKay; Xuemei Bai; Fabrice DeClerck; Kristie L. Ebi; Christopher Gordon; Joyeeta Gupta; Syezlin Hasan; Lisa Jacobson; Steven J. Lade; Diana Liverman; Sina Loriani; Awaz Mohamed; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; David Obura; Dahe Qin; Crelis Rammelt; Juan C. Rocha; Johan Rockström; Peter H. Verburg; Caroline Zimm

doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w

Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

Ben Stewart-Koster^*, Stuart E. Bunn^*, Pamela Green, Christopher Ndehedehe, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie L. Ebi, Christopher Gordon, Joyeeta Gupta, Syezlin Hasan, Lisa Jacobson, Steven J. Lade, Diana Liverman, Sina Loriani, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Dahe QinCrelis Rammelt, Juan C. Rocha, Johan Rockström, Peter H. Verburg, Caroline Zimm

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	53-63
Number of pages	11
Journal	Nature Sustainability
Volume	7
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w
Publication status	Published - Jan 2024

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Stewart-Koster, B., Bunn, S. E., Green, P., Ndehedehe, C., Andersen, L. S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bai, X., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K. L., Gordon, C., Gupta, J., Hasan, S., Jacobson, L., Lade, S. J., Liverman, D., Loriani, S., Mohamed, A., Nakicenovic, N., Obura, D., ... Zimm, C. (2024). Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water. Nature Sustainability, 7(1), 53-63. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w

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title = "Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water",

abstract = "Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.",

author = "Ben Stewart-Koster and Bunn, {Stuart E.} and Pamela Green and Christopher Ndehedehe and Andersen, {Lauren S.} and {Armstrong McKay}, {David I.} and Xuemei Bai and Fabrice DeClerck and Ebi, {Kristie L.} and Christopher Gordon and Joyeeta Gupta and Syezlin Hasan and Lisa Jacobson and Lade, {Steven J.} and Diana Liverman and Sina Loriani and Awaz Mohamed and Nebojsa Nakicenovic and David Obura and Dahe Qin and Crelis Rammelt and Rocha, {Juan C.} and Johan Rockstr{\"o}m and Verburg, {Peter H.} and Caroline Zimm",

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year = "2024",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w",

language = "English",

volume = "7",

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Stewart-Koster, B, Bunn, SE, Green, P, Ndehedehe, C, Andersen, LS, Armstrong McKay, DI, Bai, X, DeClerck, F, Ebi, KL, Gordon, C, Gupta, J, Hasan, S, Jacobson, L, Lade, SJ, Liverman, D, Loriani, S, Mohamed, A, Nakicenovic, N, Obura, D, Qin, D, Rammelt, C, Rocha, JC, Rockström, J, Verburg, PH & Zimm, C 2024, 'Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water', Nature Sustainability, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 53-63. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w

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AU - Gordon, Christopher

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AU - Jacobson, Lisa

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AU - Liverman, Diana

AU - Loriani, Sina

AU - Mohamed, Awaz

AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

AU - Obura, David

AU - Qin, Dahe

AU - Rammelt, Crelis

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AU - Verburg, Peter H.

AU - Zimm, Caroline

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AB - Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

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JO - Nature Sustainability

JF - Nature Sustainability

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Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

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