Long-term impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on invasive disease and pneumonia hospitalizations in indigenous and non-indigenous Australians

Background. Universal pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs began in Indigenous Australian children in 2001 and all children in 2005, changing to 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 2011. We used laboratory data for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and coded hospitalizations for noninvasive pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PnCAP) to evaluate long-term impact. Methods. Annual incidence (per 100 000 population) was calculated for age-specific total IPD, PCV13 non-7-valent PCV (PCV7) serotypes, and PnCAP by Indigenous status. Incidence in the pre-universal PCV7 (2002-2004), early PCV7 (2005-2007), pre-PCV13 (2008 to mid-2011), and post-PCV13 (mid-2011 to 2016) periods was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Results. In the total population, all-age incidence of IPD declined from 11.8 pre-PCV7 to 7.1 post-PCV13 (IRR, 0.61 [95% confidence interval {CI},.59-.63]) but for PnCAP declined among ages <1 year (IRR, 0.34 [95% CI,.25-.45]) and 1-4 years (IRR, 0.50 [95% CI,.43-.57]) but increased significantly among age ≥5 years (IRRs, 1.08-1.14). In Indigenous people, baseline PCV13 nonPCV7 IPD incidence was 3-fold higher, amplified by a serotype 1 epidemic in 2011. By 2015-2016, although incidence of IPD and PnCAP in children aged <5 years decreased by 38%, neither decreased in people aged ≥5 years. Conclusions. Fifteen years post-PCV and 5 years post-PCV13, direct and indirect impact on IPD and PnCAP differed by age and between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, with potential implications for long-term PCV impact in comparable settings.