Longitudinal gambling risk transitions: evidence from a nationally representative Australian sample

Aims: Problem gambling has downstream consequences on individuals, families and the community. While a strong research base now exists on predictors and outcomes of problem gambling risk and severity, few studies have examined the transitions in gambling risk status over time, and factors associated with these transitions. 

Methods: The current study addresses this knowledge gap by examining gambling transitions using two waves of longitudinal, population-representative Australian data (N = 12,364) collected in 2015 and 2018. Focal to our approach is the assessment of predictors of gambling risk status including demographics, and key psychosocial factors that might attenuate the risk of transition into more severe gambling. 

Results: The results show significant stability in gambling risk over time, particularly among individuals who reported no or low gambling risk. Gambling risk transitions were more likely to occur toward less severe than more severe levels of gambling. Furthermore, gambling problems tended to persist in more severe levels of gambling risk. Financial hardship, younger age, male gender, experience of hardship, lower levels of educational attainment, chronic health conditions, risky levels of alcohol consumption, living in low SES areas, and low sense of mastery were associated with transitions from low to more severe gambling over the three-year period. There were no significant predictors of transitions to lower levels of gambling risk in the current data. 

Conclusions: Our findings can help inform public health interventions by better targeting individuals at elevated risk for more severe gambling over time, and we outline a method for analyzing transitions in longitudinal datasets that can be applied in future studies in addiction.