Lukashenka and His Voters

Various explanations have been offered for the commanding electoral support that has been enjoyed by the Belarusian president Alyaksandr Lukashenka since his original election in 1994. On the evidence of the authors’ surveys, in particular post-election opinion surveys conducted in 2006 and 2011, there is an association between social structural variables and electoral support, and between perceptions of government economic performance and electoral support, but both largely disappear when appropriate controls are introduced. It is personal approval of Lukashenka on the part of voters, over and above these other circumstances, that makes by far the largest contribution.