Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E. J. Rohling; A. Sluijs; H. A. Dijkstra; P. Köhler; R. S.W. Van De Wal; A. S. Von Der Heydt; D. J. Beerling; A. Berger; P. K. Bijl; M. Crucifix; R. Deconto; S. S. Drijfhout; A. Fedorov; G. L. Foster; A. Ganopolski; J. Hansen; B. Hönisch; H. Hooghiemstra; M. Huber; P. Huybers; R. Knutti; D. W. Lea; L. J. Lourens; D. Lunt; V. Masson-Demotte; M. Medina-Elizalde; B. Otto-Bliesner; M. Pagani; H. Pälike; H. Renssen; D. L. Royer; M. Siddall; P. Valdes; J. C. Zachos; R. E. Zeebe

doi:10.1038/nature11574

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E. J. Rohling^*, A. Sluijs, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R. S.W. Van De Wal, A. S. Von Der Heydt, D. J. Beerling, A. Berger, P. K. Bijl, M. Crucifix, R. Deconto, S. S. Drijfhout, A. Fedorov, G. L. Foster, A. Ganopolski, J. Hansen, B. Hönisch, H. Hooghiemstra, M. Huber, P. HuybersR. Knutti, D. W. Lea, L. J. Lourens, D. Lunt, V. Masson-Demotte, M. Medina-Elizalde, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Pagani, H. Pälike, H. Renssen, D. L. Royer, M. Siddall, P. Valdes, J. C. Zachos, R. E. Zeebe

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

242 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W^-1 m ²) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO₂, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	683-691
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature
Volume	491
Issue number	7426
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11574
Publication status	Published - 29 Nov 2012

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Rohling, E. J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H. A., Köhler, P., Van De Wal, R. S. W., Von Der Heydt, A. S., Beerling, D. J., Berger, A., Bijl, P. K., Crucifix, M., Deconto, R., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G. L., Ganopolski, A., Hansen, J., Hönisch, B., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., ... Zeebe, R. E. (2012). Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491(7426), 683-691. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11574

@article{e112d8a3f2a645568229c62fc076ed6d,

title = "Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity",

abstract = "Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W-1 m 2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.",

author = "Rohling, {E. J.} and A. Sluijs and Dijkstra, {H. A.} and P. K{\"o}hler and {Van De Wal}, {R. S.W.} and {Von Der Heydt}, {A. S.} and Beerling, {D. J.} and A. Berger and Bijl, {P. K.} and M. Crucifix and R. Deconto and Drijfhout, {S. S.} and A. Fedorov and Foster, {G. L.} and A. Ganopolski and J. Hansen and B. H{\"o}nisch and H. Hooghiemstra and M. Huber and P. Huybers and R. Knutti and Lea, {D. W.} and Lourens, {L. J.} and D. Lunt and V. Masson-Demotte and M. Medina-Elizalde and B. Otto-Bliesner and M. Pagani and H. P{\"a}like and H. Renssen and Royer, {D. L.} and M. Siddall and P. Valdes and Zachos, {J. C.} and Zeebe, {R. E.}",

year = "2012",

month = nov,

day = "29",

doi = "10.1038/nature11574",

language = "English",

volume = "491",

pages = "683--691",

journal = "Nature",

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Rohling, EJ, Sluijs, A, Dijkstra, HA, Köhler, P, Van De Wal, RSW, Von Der Heydt, AS, Beerling, DJ, Berger, A, Bijl, PK, Crucifix, M, Deconto, R, Drijfhout, SS, Fedorov, A, Foster, GL, Ganopolski, A, Hansen, J, Hönisch, B, Hooghiemstra, H, Huber, M, Huybers, P, Knutti, R, Lea, DW, Lourens, LJ, Lunt, D, Masson-Demotte, V, Medina-Elizalde, M, Otto-Bliesner, B, Pagani, M, Pälike, H, Renssen, H, Royer, DL, Siddall, M, Valdes, P, Zachos, JC & Zeebe, RE 2012, 'Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity', Nature, vol. 491, no. 7426, pp. 683-691. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11574

TY - JOUR

T1 - Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

AU - Rohling, E. J.

AU - Sluijs, A.

AU - Dijkstra, H. A.

AU - Köhler, P.

AU - Van De Wal, R. S.W.

AU - Von Der Heydt, A. S.

AU - Beerling, D. J.

AU - Berger, A.

AU - Bijl, P. K.

AU - Crucifix, M.

AU - Deconto, R.

AU - Drijfhout, S. S.

AU - Fedorov, A.

AU - Foster, G. L.

AU - Ganopolski, A.

AU - Hansen, J.

AU - Hönisch, B.

AU - Hooghiemstra, H.

AU - Huber, M.

AU - Huybers, P.

AU - Knutti, R.

AU - Lea, D. W.

AU - Lourens, L. J.

AU - Lunt, D.

AU - Masson-Demotte, V.

AU - Medina-Elizalde, M.

AU - Otto-Bliesner, B.

AU - Pagani, M.

AU - Pälike, H.

AU - Renssen, H.

AU - Royer, D. L.

AU - Siddall, M.

AU - Valdes, P.

AU - Zachos, J. C.

AU - Zeebe, R. E.

PY - 2012/11/29

Y1 - 2012/11/29

N2 - Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W-1 m 2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

AB - Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W-1 m 2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84870265706&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/nature11574

DO - 10.1038/nature11574

M3 - Article

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 491

SP - 683

EP - 691

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7426

ER -

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Abstract

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