Managing landscapes for conservation under uncertainty

In ecology, populations may be linked conceptually with landscapes through habitat and spatial population models. Usually, these models deal with single species and treat a range of uncertainties implicitly and explicitly. They assist managers in testing different management scenarios and making strategic decisions. Landscape pattern analysis was the first attempt to deal with multiple species, and it led to a range of landscape management strategies. Advances in landscape ecology, driven largely by the pragmatic needs of conservation, are building approaches to multispecies management that have stronger ecological foundations. However, their treatment of uncertainty is in its infancy. In this paper, we provide examples to illustrate some of these issues. We conclude that one of the most important sources of uncertainty is the choice of the modeling frame. We recommend that landscape planners use different kinds of models, identify important sources of uncertainty that may affect planning decisions, and seek options that are likely to result in tolerable outcomes, despite uncertainty.