Measuring sensitivity to change orders in construction projects using eigenvector centrality and radius of gyration

Purpose: This paper offers a measure of sensitivity to change orders in the later stage of the construction phase to characterize the distribution of project activities around the time when the project is scheduled to finish. Design/methodology/approach: This paper employs eigenvector centrality to identify the sensitivity of an activity to change orders based on the sensitivity of its neighboring activities. Next, a distance-based measure, called the radius of gyration, is adopted to describe the distribution of project activities around the time when the project is scheduled to finish. Finally, a sensitivity measure, which quantifies the dispersion of project activities from the project finish date, is developed. Findings: Two real-life construction projects are used to measure the sensitivity to late changes. The results conform to the intuition of sensitivity to late changes and confirm that the negative effects of change orders are amplified when project activities are scheduled to start closer to the finish date. Originality/value: This paper adds to the literature on change orders in construction projects by developing the first method for quantifying the sensitivity of projects to the issuance of late changes. The proposed method can provide valuable information to project owners and construction managers as they negotiate the pricing of change orders based on their time of occurrence.