Megatrends Affecting Smallholder Forestry in Indonesia to the Year 2030

This paper identifies and explores megatrends with major implications for smallholder-based commercial forestry in Indonesia to the year 2030. A megatrend is a cluster of trends that represent a significant shift in the condition of the environment, economy or society, with major implications over the longer term. Megatrend analysis is one example of foresighting, an approach which complements traditional forestry sector outlook studies. The eight megatrends explore the dynamics of Indonesia's urbanising population; their rising incomes and education rates, manifest in an expanding middle class and changing demands; the imperative to provide for the needs of the still-many poor; the tension between market-based opportunities and the Indonesian bureaucracy, inadequate physical infrastructure and vested interests; Indonesia's place as a global hotspot of forest and biodiversity loss; the consequences of climate change; the emerging digital and technology-driven economy and society; and the possible impacts of both natural and man-made crises. These megatrends and their component subtrends have various implications for smallholder forestry; we identify best, worst and more likely case scenarios as starting points for further research.