Methods for exploring uncertainty in groundwater management predictions

Joseph H.A. Guillaume*, Randall J. Hunt, Alessandro Comunian, Rachel S. Blakers, Baihua Fu

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

    27 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Models of groundwater systems help to integrate knowledge about the natural and human system covering different spatial and temporal scales, often from multiple disciplines, in order to address a range of issues of concern to various stakeholders. A model is simply a tool to express what we think we know. Uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge or natural variability, means that there are always alternative models that may need to be considered. This chapter provides an overview of uncertainty in models and in the definition of a problem to model, highlights approaches to communicating and using predictions of uncertain outcomes and summarises commonly used methods to explore uncertainty in groundwater management predictions. It is intended to raise awareness of how alternative models and hence uncertainty can be explored in order to facilitate the integration of these techniques with groundwater management.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationIntegrated Groundwater Management
    Subtitle of host publicationConcepts, Approaches and Challenges
    PublisherSpringer International Publishing
    Pages711-737
    Number of pages27
    ISBN (Electronic)9783319235769
    ISBN (Print)9783319235752
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2016

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