Modelling and adaptive environmental management

Models can be used to synthesise our understanding of a system and facilitate the exploration of possible impacts of changes in management, climate and other factors. Modelling can also be an effective process in helping to identify knowledge gaps and prioritising monitoring requirements and management options. Accordingly modelling can be a valuable tool in assisting adaptive management. Model development should follow a rigorous approach to enhance relevance and credibility, particularly when models are used to guide management decisions which require defensibility. Appropriate stakeholder involvement throughout the model development process can be an effective means of social learning and consensus building. Working in collaboration with all stakeholders helps to ensure the model is appropriately focussed, and is more likely to produce recommendations acceptable to the decision makers and community. Integrated modelling is useful in informing decision making for systems involving complex, multi-sectoral issues. These models can also be applied for purposes such as prediction, forecasting, system understanding and social learning. The main integrated modelling approaches include Bayesian networks, coupled components models, expert systems, agent-based models and system dynamics. The selection of approach must depend on the purpose of the modelling exercise, the available knowledge and data on the system, the timeframe and the technical resources available. Integrated approaches promote stakeholder engagement, systems thinking and transparency, and can therefore be an effective tool in adaptive management.