NATO enlargement and eastern opinion

The evidence of representative surveys conducted in Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine in 2000 and 2001 is that relatively few believe there is a serious and immediate threat to their security. Of potential threats, however, the US remains the most important, followed by Iran, Iraq and China. Attitudes towards NATO, in particular, are more polarized, with more concern in Russia and Belarus about the alliance's enlargement than in Moldova and Ukraine. People who are older, female and who regard themselves as on the political left are more likely to oppose NATO enlargement and the possibility of their own country's membership, although the statistical effects are generally modest. Attitudes of this kind are of limited importance in short-term decisions within the region, but are likely to impose limits upon a more definitive reorientation towards the West in the aftermath of 11 September.