Natural replacements for ozone-depleting refrigerants in eastern and southern Asia

A computer model has been written to predict the consumption of refrigerants for vehicle air conditioning in China, India, South Korea and South-East Asia, their effect on ozone depletion and global warming, and their costs. A simple logarithmic relationship between per capita income and population growth rate is assumed. Correlations between vehicle ownership and air-conditioning usage are obtained from worldwide data. Both synthetic HFC (134a) and natural (hydrocarbons) refrigerants are considered. Sample calculations, assuming reasonable economic growth rates, predict that the use of hydrocarbons will lead to significant reductions in global warming potential and large savings in cost. The synthetic HFC option will incur costs exceeding a billion US dollars per year after the year 2005.