Necessity of negative serial correlation for mean-reversion of stock prices

Kwang Il Choe, Kiseok Nam*, Farshid Vahid

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In this paper, we show that the widespread common perception that stock returns must necessarily exhibit negative first-order autocorrelation for the mean-reverting components of stock prices is not quite correct. The necessity of negative autocorrelation in one-period returns is an artifact of assuming an AR(1) process for the transitory components of the underlying stock price and assuming independence between innovations in the transitory process and innovations in the permanent components. The sign of first-order return autocorrelation for mean-reverting property could be positive under a different lag structure of the transitory components of stock prices.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)576-583
    Number of pages8
    JournalQuarterly Review of Economics and Finance
    Volume47
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Sept 2007

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