New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Re-Defining the Future

The historic independence referendum that took place on 4 November 2018 in New Caledonia marks the beginning of a potentially four-year self-determination process that is, like the French territory itself, unique. It is the final stage of a series of agreements that ended civil war over independence, and that have overseen peace in New Caledonia for 30 years. The referendum has highlighted the real achievements under the peace agreements, but also areas of deep difference, creating new uncertainties and risks to stability. While the November vote saw majority support for staying with France, it exposed continued ethnic division, with a sizeable Indigenous Kanak vote for independence, despite years of Accord compromises. The referendum is only the first of potentially two more divisive votes by 2022, to be preceded by local provincial elections in May 2019. Whatever the voting outcomes, the majority loyalists must take into account Indigenous independence aspirations in considering the major issues left over after the Noumea Accord's completion, if peaceful governance is to continue. UN decolonization principles present three options: independence, independence in some kind of partnership with France, or continued integration with France. So long as the answer remains ‘no’ to independence, this final process will demand serious dialogue between bitterly opposed parties, at the least about expanded local powers, re-defining governance in New Caledonia beyond the Noumea Accord.