New Caledonia's self-determination process

New Caledonia has been under French tutelage from 1853. From the early-twentieth-century local parties have sought increasing autonomy, and some, mainly indigenous Kanaks, independence, culminating in a civil war in the 1980s. The 1988 Matignon-Oudinot Accords ended the violence and, together with the 1998 Noumea Accord, delayed a promised independence referendum by 30 years, in return for increased autonomy with scheduled handovers of certain responsibilities by France, and more equitable distribution of nickel returns, in a common destiny across communities. The final, self-determination phase of these agreements is now formally complete, with three independence referendums held in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The first two votes, returning a slim and narrowing majority for staying with France, revealed the continuing deep ethnic divide over independence. A call for nonparticipation by indigenous leaders, after the devastating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on their communities, widely heeded, effectively nullified the political effect of the final December 2021 vote, again favouring staying with France. Independence leaders are now calling for another vote. This paper reviews the historical context, the next steps, and key issues in the ongoing self-determination process, including issues engaging important geostrategic interests for France and, briefly, some implications for the South Pacific region.