Non-market value losses to coastal ecosystem services and wetlands from sea-level rise and storm surge, 2050 to 2100: The Kimberley Region, Western Australia

Accelerating climate change from the thermal expansion of oceans and losses from terrestrial glaciers and ice sheets causes sea level rise (SLR), damaging coastal ecosystems and generating non-market value losses. Using an innovative Artificial Intelligence (AI) projection method and 18 existing geographical SLR projections, we project future sea level rise and storm surge (SLR/S) for the 1600 km coastline of the Kimberley Region, Western Australia, a region with a larger surface area than Great Britain, Ireland, and Portugal combined and with a permanent population of 40,000 people of which more than 16,000 identify as Indigenous. Using our projected coastal area inundation from future SLR, we estimated the non-market value losses of the Kimberley's coastal ecosystem and wetlands with projected SLR/S to 2050 and 2100 for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Average annual non-market losses from SLR/S in 2050 and 2100 in the Kimberley are large relative to the size of the regional economy and are estimated to range from A$2.7 to A$4.3 billion (2050) and A$8.1 to A$15.8 billion (2100), depending on the RCP and temperature pathway. Our findings highlight the need for adequately resourced community-based approaches to climate adaptation.