TY - JOUR
T1 - Nonlinear and threshold effect of meteorological factors on Japanese encephalitis transmission in Southwestern China
AU - Liu, Zhidong
AU - Zhang, Yiwen
AU - Tong, Michael Xiaoliang
AU - Zhang, Ying
AU - Xiang, Jianjun
AU - Gao, Qi
AU - Wang, Shuzi
AU - Sun, Shuyue
AU - Jiang, Baofa
AU - Bi, Peng
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2020 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - Although previous studies have reported that meteorological factors might affect the risk of Japanese encephalitis (JE), the relationship between meteorological factors and JE remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors and JE and identify the threshold temperature. Daily meteorological data and JE surveillance data in Dazhou, Sichuan, were collected for the study period from 2005 to 2012 (restricting to May-October because of the seasonal distribution of JE). A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the lagged and cumulative effect of daily average temperature and daily rainfall on JE transmission. A total of 622 JE cases were reported over the study period. We found JE was positively associated with daily average temperature and daily rainfall with a 25-day lag and 30-day lag, respectively. The threshold value of the daily average temperature is 20°C. Each 5°C increase over the threshold would lead to a 13% (95% CI: 1-17.3%) increase in JE. Using 0 mm as the reference, a daily rainfall of 100 mm would lead to a 132% (95% CI: 73-311%) increase in the risk of JE. Japanese encephalitis is climate-sensitive; meteorological factors should be taken into account for the future prevention and control measure making, especially in a warm and rainy weather condition.
AB - Although previous studies have reported that meteorological factors might affect the risk of Japanese encephalitis (JE), the relationship between meteorological factors and JE remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors and JE and identify the threshold temperature. Daily meteorological data and JE surveillance data in Dazhou, Sichuan, were collected for the study period from 2005 to 2012 (restricting to May-October because of the seasonal distribution of JE). A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the lagged and cumulative effect of daily average temperature and daily rainfall on JE transmission. A total of 622 JE cases were reported over the study period. We found JE was positively associated with daily average temperature and daily rainfall with a 25-day lag and 30-day lag, respectively. The threshold value of the daily average temperature is 20°C. Each 5°C increase over the threshold would lead to a 13% (95% CI: 1-17.3%) increase in JE. Using 0 mm as the reference, a daily rainfall of 100 mm would lead to a 132% (95% CI: 73-311%) increase in the risk of JE. Japanese encephalitis is climate-sensitive; meteorological factors should be taken into account for the future prevention and control measure making, especially in a warm and rainy weather condition.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097210511&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0040
DO - 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0040
M3 - Article
SN - 0002-9637
VL - 103
SP - 2442
EP - 2449
JO - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
IS - 6
ER -