Of Australian strategy and submarine design

The decision to acquire 12 new submarines was one of the main outcomes from the 2009 White Paper. Other than to build the new vessels in South Australia, few aspects of the Future Submarine program have been decided. Three main options remain under consideration: a completely new, bespoke design, an evolved Collins class, and a MOTS (modified off the shelf) European boat that is cheaper, but also less capable in terms of range, endurance, sensors and combat system than the other alternatives. What these new boats are supposed to do has received far less attention in the debate. Andrew Davies, Ben Schreer and Peter Briggs are to be commended for drawing attention to the link between the submarine options under consideration, and the role, if any, that Australia intends to play in the emerging US posture in Asia. Andrew and Ben imply that Australias strategic focus on northeast versus Southeast Asia will have direct implications for the choice of design. That seems intuitive if the distance between Australian ports and those two areas is the main criterion. The question, however, is whether this intuition is correct. A definitive answer to this question is beyond what can be achieved in a blog post (and beyond my expertise), but its nonetheless useful to examine this assumption in greater detail.