TY - JOUR
T1 - Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease
T2 - the case of bulk milk testing in Australia
AU - Kompas, Tom
AU - Ha, Pham Van
AU - Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh
AU - East, Iain
AU - Roche, Sharon
AU - Garner, Graeme
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc.
PY - 2017/10
Y1 - 2017/10
N2 - Previous foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation-based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post-outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.
AB - Previous foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation-based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post-outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.
KW - Australia
KW - bulk milk testing
KW - dynamic optimisation
KW - foot-and-mouth disease
KW - surveillance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85030263618&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/1467-8489.12224
DO - 10.1111/1467-8489.12224
M3 - Article
SN - 1364-985X
VL - 61
SP - 515
EP - 538
JO - Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
JF - Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
IS - 4
ER -