Patterns and predictors of alcohol use during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia: Longitudinal cohort study

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in disruptions across many life domains. The distress associated with the pandemic itself, and with public health efforts to manage the outbreak, could result in increased alcohol use. This study aimed to quantify changes in alcohol use during the early stages of the pandemic and factors associated with different patterns of use. Methods: Data were obtained from a longitudinal survey of a representative Australian adult sample (N = 1296, 50% female, M_age = 46.0) conducted from March to June 2020, during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia. Change in alcohol consumption was examined using Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) scores from waves one, three, five, and seven of the study, each 4 weeks apart. Factors associated with alcohol consumption were examined, including depression (PHQ-9) and anxiety (GAD-7) symptoms, health risk tolerance, stress and coping, work and social impairment (WSAS), COVID impacts, and sociodemographic variables. We tested changes in alcohol use across the full sample using a mixed effects repeated measure ANOVA model and a multinomial logistic regression to identify factors assessed at wave 1 that were independently associated with alcohol use. Results: There was no significant change in AUDIT-C scores across the study. For most participants, alcohol use did not increase during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. COVID-19 exposure, higher perceived coping, depression symptoms, and male gender were associated with greater odds of increasing or elevated levels of alcohol use. Social changes, which included working from home, had mixed effects on alcohol consumption. Conclusions: Although no evidence was found for increased alcohol use overall during the early months of the pandemic, several factors were associated with alcohol consumption at risky levels. Greater understanding of motivations for drinking across public and private contexts, along with targeted support for high-risk groups, could assist in reducing harm associated with alcohol consumption.