Perspective on China's commitment to carbon neutrality under the innovation-energy-emissions nexus

The changing landscape in global geopolitics of energy security coupled with post-COVID slow economic recovery has raised concerns about China's carbon neutrality commitment. This study seeks to answer the role of China's green innovation, renewables, non-renewables, and GDP for CO₂ emissions using the novel Quantile Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (_QARDL) model over an extended period from 1990 to 2020. The results conclude that green innovation can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to three times with a 1:3 ratio while renewable energy sources are able to cut CO₂ emissions with a modest rate of return at a 1:0.8 ratio. Similarly, with a 1:3.5 ratio, fossil fuels which still account for more than 83% of total energy consumption are highly emission-intensive. GDP spurs CO₂ emissions but at a decreasing rate. In addition, the results also conclude the validation of the EKC hypothesis, meaning that GDP has the potential to offset environmental degradation in both short- and long-run paths. In the current situation, the renewable energy sector is environmentally inefficient and needs policy reforms. Considering the current economic slowdown and potential future challenges to energy security, the country needs to take stringent policy measures to fulfill its existing commitments in self-interest.