Polarization in the future journal publishing ecosystem: Selective subscription journals and open access mega-journals

The development of information technology has drastically changed scholarly communication. The advent of electronic journals has changed the industrial structure of academic publishing. As the market concentration of journal publishing continues to increase, the pricing of journals has been dominated and controlled by large publishers. The never-ending rise of subscription prices is approaching a tipping point that libraries/institutions – even in high-income countries – can no longer bear. In these circumstances, the open access (OA) movement has been promoted over the past 15 years, and new types of publications have appeared. This paper discusses the position of each stakeholder in the OA landscape, and foresees a new ecosystem of future journal publishing – the polarization of selective subscription journals and OA mega-journals.