Political Chronicles: Commonwealth of Australia, July to December 2007

In the months leading up to the 2007 general election, Prime Minister John Howard waited like Mr Micawber “in case anything turned up” that would restore the fortunes of the Coalition. The government’s attacks on the Opposition, and its new leader Kevin Rudd, had fallen flat, and a series of staged events designed to boost the government’s stocks had not translated into electoral support. So, as time went on and things did not improve, the Coalition government showed increasing signs of panic, desperation and abandonment. In July, John Howard had asked his party room “is it me” as he reflected on the low standing of the government (Australian, 17 July 2007). Labor held a commanding lead in opinion polls throughout most of 2007 — recording a primary support of between 47 and 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 to 42 per cent. The most remarkable feature of the polls was their consistency — regularly showing Labor holding a 15 percentage point lead on a two-party-preferred basis. Labor also seemed impervious to attack, and the government found it difficult to get traction on “its” core issues to narrow the gap. Although a number of scandals and embarrassing incidents emerged that could have hurt Labor (such as Labor’s legal spokesman having given a character reference to an convicted drug peddler, Rudd visiting a New York pole-dancing joint and getting intoxicated, and his millionaire wife getting rich on government contracts), they did not register any impact in the polls. The consistency of Labor’s unassailable lead eventually caused the government to lose its nerve on the brink of the election, causing them to behave like political novices and very much out of character.