Powering Major Powers: Understanding Australian Uranium Export Decisions on China, Russia and India

Since 2006, Australia has added China and Russia to the range of countries to which it exports uranium. It has also shifted policy, twice, on whether to sell to India. Although Europe and the United States have long been its largest customers, Australia is increasingly likely to focus any expansion of its uranium exports on non-Western major powers and on Asia, a region experiencing both growth in the nuclear energy sector and important shifts in its strategic balance. This chapter identifies and assesses the relative weight of the multiple factors at play in Canberra’s decisions to sell uranium to China and Russia, as well as the drivers of debate about possible exports to India. Those factors include non-proliferation concerns, domestic pressures, bilateral relations with the countries concerned, economic benefits and geopolitical considerations, including balance-of-power politics, threat perceptions and the Australia-US alliance