Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

A. L. Daniau; P. J. Bartlein; S. P. Harrison; I. C. Prentice; S. Brewer; P. Friedlingstein; T. I. Harrison-Prentice; J. Inoue; K. Izumi; J. R. Marlon; S. Mooney; M. J. Power; J. Stevenson; W. Tinner; M. Andrič; J. Atanassova; H. Behling; M. Black; O. Blarquez; K. J. Brown; C. Carcaillet; E. A. Colhoun; D. Colombaroli; B. A.S. Davis; D. D'Costa; J. Dodson; L. Dupont; Z. Eshetu; D. G. Gavin; A. Genries; S. Haberle; D. J. Hallett; G. Hope; S. P. Horn; T. G. Kassa; F. Katamura; L. M. Kennedy; P. Kershaw; S. Krivonogov; C. Long; D. Magri; E. Marinova; G. M. McKenzie; P. I. Moreno; P. Moss; F. H. Neumann; E. Norstrm; C. Paitre; D. Rius; N. Roberts; G. S. Robinson; N. Sasaki; L. Scott; H. Takahara; V. Terwilliger; F. Thevenon; R. Turner; V. G. Valsecchi; B. Vannière; M. Walsh; N. Williams; Y. Zhang

doi:10.1029/2011GB004249

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

A. L. Daniau^*, P. J. Bartlein, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, S. Brewer, P. Friedlingstein, T. I. Harrison-Prentice, J. Inoue, K. Izumi, J. R. Marlon, S. Mooney, M. J. Power, J. Stevenson, W. Tinner, M. Andrič, J. Atanassova, H. Behling, M. Black, O. Blarquez, K. J. BrownC. Carcaillet, E. A. Colhoun, D. Colombaroli, B. A.S. Davis, D. D'Costa, J. Dodson, L. Dupont, Z. Eshetu, D. G. Gavin, A. Genries, S. Haberle, D. J. Hallett, G. Hope, S. P. Horn, T. G. Kassa, F. Katamura, L. M. Kennedy, P. Kershaw, S. Krivonogov, C. Long, D. Magri, E. Marinova, G. M. McKenzie, P. I. Moreno, P. Moss, F. H. Neumann, E. Norstrm, C. Paitre, D. Rius, N. Roberts, G. S. Robinson, N. Sasaki, L. Scott, H. Takahara, V. Terwilliger, F. Thevenon, R. Turner, V. G. Valsecchi, B. Vannière, M. Walsh, N. Williams, Y. Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Original language	English
Article number	GB4007
Journal	Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume	26
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249
Publication status	Published - 2012

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10.1029/2011GB004249

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Daniau, A. L., Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Brewer, S., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Inoue, J., Izumi, K., Marlon, J. R., Mooney, S., Power, M. J., Stevenson, J., Tinner, W., Andrič, M., Atanassova, J., Behling, H., Black, M., Blarquez, O., ... Zhang, Y. (2012). Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 26(4), Article GB4007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249

@article{e702f07f238d4a9487d7a8f3bf152e35,

title = "Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes",

abstract = "Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.",

author = "Daniau, {A. L.} and Bartlein, {P. J.} and Harrison, {S. P.} and Prentice, {I. C.} and S. Brewer and P. Friedlingstein and Harrison-Prentice, {T. I.} and J. Inoue and K. Izumi and Marlon, {J. R.} and S. Mooney and Power, {M. J.} and J. Stevenson and W. Tinner and M. Andri{\v c} and J. Atanassova and H. Behling and M. Black and O. Blarquez and Brown, {K. J.} and C. Carcaillet and Colhoun, {E. A.} and D. Colombaroli and Davis, {B. A.S.} and D. D'Costa and J. Dodson and L. Dupont and Z. Eshetu and Gavin, {D. G.} and A. Genries and S. Haberle and Hallett, {D. J.} and G. Hope and Horn, {S. P.} and Kassa, {T. G.} and F. Katamura and Kennedy, {L. M.} and P. Kershaw and S. Krivonogov and C. Long and D. Magri and E. Marinova and McKenzie, {G. M.} and Moreno, {P. I.} and P. Moss and Neumann, {F. H.} and E. Norstrm and C. Paitre and D. Rius and N. Roberts and Robinson, {G. S.} and N. Sasaki and L. Scott and H. Takahara and V. Terwilliger and F. Thevenon and R. Turner and Valsecchi, {V. G.} and B. Vanni{\`e}re and M. Walsh and N. Williams and Y. Zhang",

year = "2012",

doi = "10.1029/2011GB004249",

language = "English",

volume = "26",

journal = "Global Biogeochemical Cycles",

issn = "0886-6236",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "4",

}

Daniau, AL, Bartlein, PJ, Harrison, SP, Prentice, IC, Brewer, S, Friedlingstein, P, Harrison-Prentice, TI, Inoue, J, Izumi, K, Marlon, JR, Mooney, S, Power, MJ, Stevenson, J, Tinner, W, Andrič, M, Atanassova, J, Behling, H, Black, M, Blarquez, O, Brown, KJ, Carcaillet, C, Colhoun, EA, Colombaroli, D, Davis, BAS, D'Costa, D, Dodson, J, Dupont, L, Eshetu, Z, Gavin, DG, Genries, A, Haberle, S, Hallett, DJ, Hope, G, Horn, SP, Kassa, TG, Katamura, F, Kennedy, LM, Kershaw, P, Krivonogov, S, Long, C, Magri, D, Marinova, E, McKenzie, GM, Moreno, PI, Moss, P, Neumann, FH, Norstrm, E, Paitre, C, Rius, D, Roberts, N, Robinson, GS, Sasaki, N, Scott, L, Takahara, H, Terwilliger, V, Thevenon, F, Turner, R, Valsecchi, VG, Vannière, B, Walsh, M, Williams, N & Zhang, Y 2012, 'Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes', Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 26, no. 4, GB4007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

AU - Daniau, A. L.

AU - Bartlein, P. J.

AU - Harrison, S. P.

AU - Prentice, I. C.

AU - Brewer, S.

AU - Friedlingstein, P.

AU - Harrison-Prentice, T. I.

AU - Inoue, J.

AU - Izumi, K.

AU - Marlon, J. R.

AU - Mooney, S.

AU - Power, M. J.

AU - Stevenson, J.

AU - Tinner, W.

AU - Andrič, M.

AU - Atanassova, J.

AU - Behling, H.

AU - Black, M.

AU - Blarquez, O.

AU - Brown, K. J.

AU - Carcaillet, C.

AU - Colhoun, E. A.

AU - Colombaroli, D.

AU - Davis, B. A.S.

AU - D'Costa, D.

AU - Dodson, J.

AU - Dupont, L.

AU - Eshetu, Z.

AU - Gavin, D. G.

AU - Genries, A.

AU - Haberle, S.

AU - Hallett, D. J.

AU - Hope, G.

AU - Horn, S. P.

AU - Kassa, T. G.

AU - Katamura, F.

AU - Kennedy, L. M.

AU - Kershaw, P.

AU - Krivonogov, S.

AU - Long, C.

AU - Magri, D.

AU - Marinova, E.

AU - McKenzie, G. M.

AU - Moreno, P. I.

AU - Moss, P.

AU - Neumann, F. H.

AU - Norstrm, E.

AU - Paitre, C.

AU - Rius, D.

AU - Roberts, N.

AU - Robinson, G. S.

AU - Sasaki, N.

AU - Scott, L.

AU - Takahara, H.

AU - Terwilliger, V.

AU - Thevenon, F.

AU - Turner, R.

AU - Valsecchi, V. G.

AU - Vannière, B.

AU - Walsh, M.

AU - Williams, N.

AU - Zhang, Y.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

AB - Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84868018440&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2011GB004249

DO - 10.1029/2011GB004249

M3 - Article

SN - 0886-6236

VL - 26

JO - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

JF - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

IS - 4

M1 - GB4007

ER -

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Abstract

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