TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting non-stationary processes
AU - Ryabko, Daniil
AU - Hutter, Marcus
PY - 2008/5
Y1 - 2008/5
N2 - Suppose we are given two probability measures on the set of one-way infinite finite-alphabet sequences. Consider the question of when one of the measures predicts the other, that is, when conditional probabilities converge (in a certain sense), if one of the measures is chosen to generate the sequence. This question may be considered a refinement of the problem of sequence prediction in its most general formulation: for a given class of probability measures, does there exist a measure which predicts all of the measures in the class? To address this problem, we find some conditions on local absolute continuity which are sufficient for prediction and generalize several different notions that are known to be sufficient for prediction. We also formulate some open questions to outline a direction for finding the conditions on classes of measures for which prediction is possible.
AB - Suppose we are given two probability measures on the set of one-way infinite finite-alphabet sequences. Consider the question of when one of the measures predicts the other, that is, when conditional probabilities converge (in a certain sense), if one of the measures is chosen to generate the sequence. This question may be considered a refinement of the problem of sequence prediction in its most general formulation: for a given class of probability measures, does there exist a measure which predicts all of the measures in the class? To address this problem, we find some conditions on local absolute continuity which are sufficient for prediction and generalize several different notions that are known to be sufficient for prediction. We also formulate some open questions to outline a direction for finding the conditions on classes of measures for which prediction is possible.
KW - Absolute/KL divergence
KW - Average/expected criteria
KW - Local absolute continuity
KW - Mixtures of measures
KW - Non-stationary measures
KW - Sequence prediction
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=41149139797&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.aml.2007.04.004
DO - 10.1016/j.aml.2007.04.004
M3 - Article
SN - 0893-9659
VL - 21
SP - 477
EP - 482
JO - Applied Mathematics Letters
JF - Applied Mathematics Letters
IS - 5
ER -