Predicting substance use at a youth mass gathering event: The role of norms and the importance of their source

Objective: Mass gathering events often involve high levels of substance use, yet the psychological predictors of substance use in these contexts have received minimal attention. This study examined the relationship between social norms and mass gathering attendees’ anticipated substance use. We (a) tested this relationship while controlling for established predictors of substance use, (b) assessed longitudinally the impact of intraindividual changes in perceived substance use norms on intraindividual changes in participants’ anticipated substance use, and (c) compared the relative impact of two normative referents (friends and typical mass gathering attendees). Method: Data were collected in situ at Schoolies (Australia’s largest youth mass gathering). On Days 1, 3, and 5 of the 7-day festival, participants (N = 427; ages 16–19, 66% female) reported normative perceptions of drinking and drug taking among friends and other attendees, and indicated their own anticipated drinking and drug taking. Results: Friend norms were associated with anticipated drinking and drug taking at each corresponding time point, with particularly strong relationships observed for anticipated drinking. Changes in friend norms also predicted changes in anticipated drinking and drug taking. Conversely, the effects of norms for typical attendees were weak. Conclusions: People’s substance use at mass gatherings is particularly influenced by perceptions of friends’ substance use. Friend norm perceptions change over time and dynamically influence young people’s anticipated substance use in these high-risk settings. Interventions to reduce substance use at mass gatherings may be enhanced by correcting misperceptions of the normative behaviors of friends. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs, 82, 320–329, 2021).