Predictors of rapid reincarceration in mentally ill young offenders

Objective: Describe characteristics of mentally ill young offenders released from custody and predictors of those who rapidly returned to custody. Method: Ambidirectional cohort study of 51 young males with mental disorders released from the largest New South Wales Juvenile Justice Centre (2005-2007), a health file audit at time of release and prospective determination of reincarceration. Results: Overall 47% were Aboriginal, 43% originated from regional communities, substance disorders were highly prevalent and only 12% accessed prior community mental health care. Over half (57%) satisfied diagnostic criteria for schizophrenia spectrum disorder. In custody, 39% were suicidal and 18% were homicidal. A majority (90%) returned to custody over a median of 28 months; half within five months of release. Schizophrenia/schizophreniform disorder (p<.001), bipolar disorder (p=.001) and schizoaffective disorder (p=.005) predicted rapid reincarceration, with shorter community survival than those without those diagnoses (p=.009). Antipsychotic treatment (p=.006) and treatment duration in custody (p=.006) predicted longer community survival. Aboriginality, younger age, prior incarceration and substance disorders were not predictive of rapid reincarceration. Conclusions: Serious mental illness was a significant predictor of rapid reincarceration in young offenders. Treatment improved community survival. The findings highlight the need for optimal psychiatric treatment and post-release care for young offenders with mental illness.