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Pricing energy spread options with variance gamma-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics

Tim Leung, Kevin Lu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We consider the pricing of energy spread options for spot prices following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a sum of independent multivariate variance gamma processes, which gives rise to mean-reverting, infinite activity price dynamics. Within this class of driving processes, the Esscher transform is used to obtain an equivalent martingale measure with a focus on the weak variance alpha-gamma process. By deriving an analytic expression for the cumulant generating function of the innovation term, we obtain a pricing formula for forwards and apply the FFT method of Hurd and Zhou to price spread options. Lastly, we demonstrate how the model should be both estimated on energy prices under the real world measure and calibrated on forward or call prices, and provide numerical results for the pricing of spread options.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages35
JournalarXiv e-prints
DOIs
Publication statusSubmitted - 5 Aug 2025

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