Quantitative Approaches and Theory Evaluation in Norms Research

Quantitative approaches are a systematic and versatile way to study norms in International Relations (IR). Given that international norms are often meant to influence many countries’ identity and behavior as a key litmus test of norm effects, quantitative approaches help researchers establish a big picture about the relative significance of competing explanatory variables for norm outcomes across a large number of observations. This chapter demonstrates the merits and possibilities of thus far the most used quantitative approach in norms research in IR: event history analysis (also known as survival analysis). As ‘the whether and when test,’ event history analysis helps norms researchers model and predict how various explanatory variables shape governments’ (non)adoption of a particular norm innovation and its timing, and it has been especially useful for analyzing norm diffusion. The chapter overviews how quantitative norms research, particularly that on norm diffusion, has evolved during the past three decades as the literature has shifted its analytic orientation from cultural structuralism to more mechanism-based and actor-centered explanations, that is, from the constructivist to the strategic moves of researching norms. It then elucidates the nuts and bolts of conducting event history analysis of norm diffusion. In doing so, it also demonstrates how event history analysis can complement and improve norms research using small-n case studies, especially for case selection and process-tracing.