Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Alistair J. Hobday; Fabio Boschetti; Christian Moeseneder; Robert L. Stephenson; Cindy Bessey; Catherine M. Bulman; Stephanie Contardo; Christopher Cvitanovic; Jeffery M. Dambacher; Leo X.C. Dutra; Elizabeth A. Fulton; Andrew Lenton; L. Richard Little; Bruce Mapstone; Karlie S. McDonald; Eva E. Plagányi; Heidi Pethybridge; Peter Rothlisberg; Joanna Strzelecki; Peter A. Thompson; Ingrid van Putten

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015

Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Alistair J. Hobday^*, Fabio Boschetti, Christian Moeseneder, Robert L. Stephenson, Cindy Bessey, Catherine M. Bulman, Stephanie Contardo, Christopher Cvitanovic, Jeffery M. Dambacher, Leo X.C. Dutra, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Andrew Lenton, L. Richard Little, Bruce Mapstone, Karlie S. McDonald, Eva E. Plagányi, Heidi Pethybridge, Peter Rothlisberg, Joanna Strzelecki, Peter A. ThompsonIngrid van Putten

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	631-644
Number of pages	14
Journal	One Earth
Volume	3
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015
Publication status	Published - 20 Nov 2020

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Hobday, A. J., Boschetti, F., Moeseneder, C., Stephenson, R. L., Bessey, C., Bulman, C. M., Contardo, S., Cvitanovic, C., Dambacher, J. M., Dutra, L. X. C., Fulton, E. A., Lenton, A., Little, L. R., Mapstone, B., McDonald, K. S., Plagányi, E. E., Pethybridge, H., Rothlisberg, P., Strzelecki, J., ... van Putten, I. (2020). Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning. One Earth, 3(5), 631-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015

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abstract = "Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices.",

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Hobday, AJ, Boschetti, F, Moeseneder, C, Stephenson, RL, Bessey, C, Bulman, CM, Contardo, S, Cvitanovic, C, Dambacher, JM, Dutra, LXC, Fulton, EA, Lenton, A, Little, LR, Mapstone, B, McDonald, KS, Plagányi, EE, Pethybridge, H, Rothlisberg, P, Strzelecki, J, Thompson, PA & van Putten, I 2020, 'Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning', One Earth, vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 631-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015

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T1 - Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

AU - Hobday, Alistair J.

AU - Boschetti, Fabio

AU - Moeseneder, Christian

AU - Stephenson, Robert L.

AU - Bessey, Cindy

AU - Bulman, Catherine M.

AU - Contardo, Stephanie

AU - Cvitanovic, Christopher

AU - Dambacher, Jeffery M.

AU - Dutra, Leo X.C.

AU - Fulton, Elizabeth A.

AU - Lenton, Andrew

AU - Little, L. Richard

AU - Mapstone, Bruce

AU - McDonald, Karlie S.

AU - Plagányi, Eva E.

AU - Pethybridge, Heidi

AU - Rothlisberg, Peter

AU - Strzelecki, Joanna

AU - Thompson, Peter A.

AU - van Putten, Ingrid

PY - 2020/11/20

Y1 - 2020/11/20

N2 - Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices.

AB - Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices.

KW - entropy

KW - futures

KW - informed decision making

KW - marine science

KW - research investment

KW - scenarios

KW - surprises

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DO - 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015

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VL - 3

SP - 631

EP - 644

JO - One Earth

JF - One Earth

IS - 5

ER -

Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

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