Repayment burdens of mortgage-style student loans in China and steps toward income-contingent loans

Currently China is experiencing unprecedented growth in higher education enrolments, with this trend set to continue. Whether higher education financing policy is able to facilitate this expansion is a critical issue for both education outcomes and economic growth. Using cross-sectional earnings data from the Chinese Household Income Project we find that a significant proportion of low-income graduates have a high likelihood of experiencing financial difficulties with current loan arrangements, implying high levels of financial hardship, a reliance on family members to meet repayments in order to avoid difficulties, and for some, default. In contrast we show that a properly designed income-contingent loan scheme has the potential to significantly mitigate, even eliminate, these concerns without attendant high budgetary costs. Our findings have important policy implications for Chinese higher education financing.