Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockström; Joyeeta Gupta; Dahe Qin; Steven J. Lade; Jesse F. Abrams; Lauren S. Andersen; David I. Armstrong McKay; Xuemei Bai; Govindasamy Bala; Stuart E. Bunn; Daniel Ciobanu; Fabrice DeClerck; Kristie Ebi; Lauren Gifford; Christopher Gordon; Syezlin Hasan; Norichika Kanie; Timothy M. Lenton; Sina Loriani; Diana M. Liverman; Awaz Mohamed; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; David Obura; Daniel Ospina; Klaudia Prodani; Crelis Rammelt; Boris Sakschewski; Joeri Scholtens; Ben Stewart-Koster; Thejna Tharammal; Detlef van Vuuren; Peter H. Verburg; Ricarda Winkelmann; Caroline Zimm; Elena M. Bennett; Stefan Bringezu; Wendy Broadgate; Pamela A. Green; Lei Huang; Lisa Jacobson; Christopher Ndehedehe; Simona Pedde; Juan Rocha; Marten Scheffer; Lena Schulte-Uebbing; Wim de Vries; Cunde Xiao; Chi Xu; Xinwu Xu; Noelia Zafra-Calvo; Xin Zhang

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockström^*, Joyeeta Gupta, Dahe Qin, Steven J. Lade^*, Jesse F. Abrams, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Diana M. LivermanAwaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Ben Stewart-Koster, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena M. Bennett, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy Broadgate, Pamela A. Green, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Christopher Ndehedehe, Simona Pedde, Juan Rocha, Marten Scheffer, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Wim de Vries, Cunde Xiao, Chi Xu, Xinwu Xu, Noelia Zafra-Calvo, Xin Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

371 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	102-111
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature
Volume	619
Issue number	7968
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
Publication status	Published - 31 May 2023

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Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Qin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L. S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bunn, S. E., Ciobanu, D., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hasan, S., Kanie, N., Lenton, T. M., Loriani, S., ... Zhang, X. (2023). Safe and just Earth system boundaries. Nature, 619(7968), 102-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

@article{00b1c81c6d5a4000a14852be38c9797b,

title = "Safe and just Earth system boundaries",

abstract = "The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.",

author = "Johan Rockstr{\"o}m and Joyeeta Gupta and Dahe Qin and Lade, {Steven J.} and Abrams, {Jesse F.} and Andersen, {Lauren S.} and {Armstrong McKay}, {David I.} and Xuemei Bai and Govindasamy Bala and Bunn, {Stuart E.} and Daniel Ciobanu and Fabrice DeClerck and Kristie Ebi and Lauren Gifford and Christopher Gordon and Syezlin Hasan and Norichika Kanie and Lenton, {Timothy M.} and Sina Loriani and Liverman, {Diana M.} and Awaz Mohamed and Nebojsa Nakicenovic and David Obura and Daniel Ospina and Klaudia Prodani and Crelis Rammelt and Boris Sakschewski and Joeri Scholtens and Ben Stewart-Koster and Thejna Tharammal and {van Vuuren}, Detlef and Verburg, {Peter H.} and Ricarda Winkelmann and Caroline Zimm and Bennett, {Elena M.} and Stefan Bringezu and Wendy Broadgate and Green, {Pamela A.} and Lei Huang and Lisa Jacobson and Christopher Ndehedehe and Simona Pedde and Juan Rocha and Marten Scheffer and Lena Schulte-Uebbing and {de Vries}, Wim and Cunde Xiao and Chi Xu and Xinwu Xu and Noelia Zafra-Calvo and Xin Zhang",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = may,

day = "31",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8",

language = "English",

volume = "619",

pages = "102--111",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "7968",

}

Rockström, J, Gupta, J, Qin, D, Lade, SJ, Abrams, JF, Andersen, LS, Armstrong McKay, DI, Bai, X, Bala, G, Bunn, SE, Ciobanu, D, DeClerck, F, Ebi, K, Gifford, L, Gordon, C, Hasan, S, Kanie, N, Lenton, TM, Loriani, S, Liverman, DM, Mohamed, A, Nakicenovic, N, Obura, D, Ospina, D, Prodani, K, Rammelt, C, Sakschewski, B, Scholtens, J, Stewart-Koster, B, Tharammal, T, van Vuuren, D, Verburg, PH, Winkelmann, R, Zimm, C, Bennett, EM, Bringezu, S, Broadgate, W, Green, PA, Huang, L, Jacobson, L, Ndehedehe, C, Pedde, S, Rocha, J, Scheffer, M, Schulte-Uebbing, L, de Vries, W, Xiao, C, Xu, C, Xu, X, Zafra-Calvo, N & Zhang, X 2023, 'Safe and just Earth system boundaries', Nature, vol. 619, no. 7968, pp. 102-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

TY - JOUR

T1 - Safe and just Earth system boundaries

AU - Rockström, Johan

AU - Gupta, Joyeeta

AU - Qin, Dahe

AU - Lade, Steven J.

AU - Abrams, Jesse F.

AU - Andersen, Lauren S.

AU - Armstrong McKay, David I.

AU - Bai, Xuemei

AU - Bala, Govindasamy

AU - Bunn, Stuart E.

AU - Ciobanu, Daniel

AU - DeClerck, Fabrice

AU - Ebi, Kristie

AU - Gifford, Lauren

AU - Gordon, Christopher

AU - Hasan, Syezlin

AU - Kanie, Norichika

AU - Lenton, Timothy M.

AU - Loriani, Sina

AU - Liverman, Diana M.

AU - Mohamed, Awaz

AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

AU - Obura, David

AU - Ospina, Daniel

AU - Prodani, Klaudia

AU - Rammelt, Crelis

AU - Sakschewski, Boris

AU - Scholtens, Joeri

AU - Stewart-Koster, Ben

AU - Tharammal, Thejna

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

AU - Verburg, Peter H.

AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda

AU - Zimm, Caroline

AU - Bennett, Elena M.

AU - Bringezu, Stefan

AU - Broadgate, Wendy

AU - Green, Pamela A.

AU - Huang, Lei

AU - Jacobson, Lisa

AU - Ndehedehe, Christopher

AU - Pedde, Simona

AU - Rocha, Juan

AU - Scheffer, Marten

AU - Schulte-Uebbing, Lena

AU - de Vries, Wim

AU - Xiao, Cunde

AU - Xu, Chi

AU - Xu, Xinwu

AU - Zafra-Calvo, Noelia

AU - Zhang, Xin

PY - 2023/5/31

Y1 - 2023/5/31

N2 - The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

AB - The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85160783146&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

DO - 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

M3 - Article

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 619

SP - 102

EP - 111

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7968

ER -

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

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