Scholarly research on nuclear exits: the role of civil society

Conventional wisdom about nuclear weapons decision-making argues that nuclear policy is based on material cost-benefit calculations, with systemic forces propelling states into a narrow range of choices. Nuclear proliferation is unsurprising, given the anarchical state system; non-proliferation will succeed only if the great powers can enforce it through a system of benefits and sanctions; disarmament is both unlikely and undesirable. I argue that the conventional wisdom is wrong on all counts. Nuclear weapons decision-making is more than a simple response to material conditions: ideational influences, including norms, psychology, language and beliefs, shape global nuclear futures in incontrovertible ways. As a result, nuclear proliferation is rare, nonproliferation is more often embraced than forced and the issue of disarmament has become more, not less, potent.