Setting the context

Asia has arguably become the most critical region in an evolving international order. Geopolitically, the region includes three of the world's great powers - China, Japan and India - and two others, the United States and Russia, lie just beyond its peripheries and interact with it extensively. Demographically, over half of the world's total population is Asian and that total is forecast to reach 60 per cent by 2050 (United Nations 1999). Economically, it is projected that China and India alone will account for more than 50 per cent of global growth between 2005 and 2030 (Economist 2006a). Militarily, four key players in the broader Asia-Pacific - the US, Russia, China and North Korea - are nuclear weapons states. Asian defence budgets constitute the world's largest arms market (US$150 billion in purchases between 1990 and 2002) and the region's ‘defence transformation’ programmes are growing (Bitzinger 2004; IISS 2006b: 398-401; Tellis 2006a). The combination of spectacular regional economic growth, the cultural and religious diversity of its massive population base and the sheer material resources it will generate and consume over the course of this century justify the observation that ‘(t)here is now a broad consensus that the Asian continent is poised to become the new center of gravity in global politics’ (Tellis 2006a: 3). Security analysts are increasingly concerned with how Asian security politics will affect international security or will, in turn, be influenced by global events and structures.