TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP)
AU - Fiedler, Stephanie
AU - Crueger, Traute
AU - D'Agostino, Roberta
AU - Peters, Karsten
AU - Becker, Tobias
AU - Leutwyler, David
AU - Paccini, Laura
AU - Burdanowitz, Jörg
AU - Buehler, Stefan A.
AU - Cortes, Alejandro Uribe
AU - Dauhut, Thibaut
AU - Dommenget, Dietmar
AU - Fraedrich, Klaus
AU - Jungandreas, Leonore
AU - Maher, Nicola
AU - Naumann, Ann Kristin
AU - Rugenstein, Maria
AU - Sakradzija, Mirjana
AU - Schmidt, Hauke
AU - Sielmann, Frank
AU - Stephan, Claudia
AU - Timmreck, Claudia
AU - Zhu, Xiuhua
AU - Stevens, Bjorn
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 American Meteorological Society
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden-Julian oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
AB - The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden-Julian oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091140462&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
DO - 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
M3 - Article
SN - 0027-0644
VL - 148
SP - 3653
EP - 3680
JO - Monthly Weather Review
JF - Monthly Weather Review
IS - 9
ER -