Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of the threatened Brush-tailed Phascogale 'Phascogale tapoatafa tapoatafa' in eastern Australia

Climate change has the potential to have a major impact on flora and fauna across Australia. There is a need to investigate the potential impact of climate change at a subspecies level to inform effective conservation management. To date, there have been no studies that have considered the effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat of the Brush-tailed Phascogale Phascogale tapoatafa tapoatafa. In this research, the potential changes to the phascogale climatic envelope were modelled to simulate low emissions (RCP2.6) and high emissions (RCP8.5) scenarios for 2075. Six bioclimatic parameters were selected, based on their likelihood of influencing phascogale occupancy. Modelling was conducted separately on two groupings of phascogale that occur in central Victoria and from northern New South Wales to southern Queensland. Of the selected parameters, the maximum temperature of the hottest month was found to have the greatest influence over phascogale distribution. The high emission scenario for 2075 suggests that climatically suitable phascogale habitat would contract by 79% in Queensland, 67% in Victoria and 17% in New South Wales. Suitable habitat would also increase in some areas with large expansions in New South Wales. Habitat connectivity will be essential for allowing phascogales to move through the landscape to reach areas where climate may be most suitable under warming. These projections do not take into account the increase in bushfires and other natural disasters that could exacerbate the effects of climate change.