Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

China's comparatively rapid consumption growth since 2010 and its increasing economic similarity with advanced economies, imply that consumer and business confidence are now central to performance, changing its global impacts and rendering recession more likely. The international effects of its new growth pattern are quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing. The transition to consumption-led growth is shown to foster employment abroad while a major Chinese recession is shown to be damaging to the advanced economies and particularly to the US, the more so if China's policy response is expansionary and includes floating the RMB.